Global Resistance to Standard Antibiotics: A Comparative Analysis of The Burden and Projections Up to 2050

Zakirov Shakirbek Yusupovich; Qoziboyev Bobur Ulugbek ogli; Khudayberganova Kamola Tadjibayevna; Dinaliyeva Dina Maratovna; Zokirova Mohira Shokirbekovna

Authors

Zakirov Shakirbek Yusupovich PhD in Medical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Microbiology, Virology and Immunology, Urgench State Medical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Qoziboyev Bobur Ulugbek ogli Assistant at the Department of Microbiology, Virology and Immunology, Urgench State Medical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Khudayberganova Kamola Tadjibayevna Assistant at the Department of Microbiology, Virology and Immunology, Urgench State Medical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Dinaliyeva Dina Maratovna Assistant at the Department of Microbiology, Virology and Immunology, Urgench State Medical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Zokirova Mohira Shokirbekovna 5th-year student of the Faculty of General Medicine, Urgench State Medical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan

Keywords:

antibiotic resistance, AMR, global burden, 2050 forecast, WHO, comparative analysis

Abstract

Antibiotic resistance (antimicrobial resistance, AMR) has become one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, associated with 4.95 million deaths in 2019 and 4.71 million in 2021, of which 1.27–1.41 million are directly attributed to bacterial resistance to standard antibiotics. The burden of AMR varies significantly across WHO regions: the highest mortality rates are observed in African countries and certain regions of Asia, whilst the lowest are found in Australasia and some European countries.

The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of the global and regional burden of bacterial AMR, identify key pathogens and syndromes, highlight regional differences, and present a quantitative projection up to 2050. The analysis is based on estimates from the global GBD–AMR project and regional analyses for Africa, Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Americas and China.

It is shown that the main contributors to mortality are Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, as well as methicillin-resistant S. aureus and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae . Modelling up to 2050 predicts an increase in AMR-attributable deaths to ~1.9 million and associated deaths to ~8.7 million per year, with a moderate increase in DALYs, with the burden concentrated among those aged over 70. The WHO’s priority policy areas (AWaRe, One Health) and the particular vulnerability of low- and middle-income countries are discussed.

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